27 Jun · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1531
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pavelka
JP
🇨🇿Jiri Plachy
ELO 1490
FormLWLWW
52%
48%
🌟Plachy covers set handicap as underdog 70% (20)
Fair odds · Pavelka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+41
H2H35-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.