27 Jun · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LN
🇨🇿Ladislav Novotny
ELO 1387
FormWWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Novotny
JM
🇨🇿Jaroslav Martinek
ELO 1357
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Novotny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+30
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.