27 Jun · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DB
🇨🇿David Barton
ELO 1475
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Barton
MT
🇨🇿Miroslav Tuma
ELO 1466
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Barton
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+9
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.