27 Jun · 21:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1630
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Polasek
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1643
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Polasek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.15· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+13
H2H19-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.