28 Jun · 03:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PP
🇨🇿Petr Picek
ELO 1466
FormLLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Picek
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1460
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Darin stays under total as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Picek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+6
H2H45-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.