27 Jun · 21:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1616
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cabis
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1671
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Cabis
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.