27 Jun · 16:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1562
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Bayer
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobisek
ELO 1507
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Bayer
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+55
H2H24-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.