27 Jun · 21:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1756
FormWWWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Mares
MK
🇨🇿Michal Kratochvil
ELO 1588
FormWLWWW
59%
41%
🌟Kratochvil rarely covers set handicap as underdog 33% (12)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
1-3
15%
Elo Gap+168
H2H5-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+168)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-4)