28 Jun · 01:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1460
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Placek
MP
🇨🇿Marek Placek
ELO 1519
FormLLWWW
47%
53%
🌟Darin stays under total as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Placek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H29-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.