27 Jun · 16:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1756
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Mares
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Postelt
ELO 1662
FormLWWLL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Mares
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+94
H2H42-58
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+94)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)