28 Jun · 12:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1727
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Vales
JV
🇨🇿Jakub Vales
ELO 1730
FormLWLLW
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vales🌟Vales goes over total as favourite 79% (14)
Fair odds · Vales
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~81 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+3
H2H31-31
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.