28 Jun · 18:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Vinter
ELO 1544
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Just
FJ
🇨🇿Frantisek Just
ELO 1584
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Just
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+40
H2H7-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.