28 Jun · 17:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇨🇿Ondrej Paril
ELO 1630
FormWLLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sedlacek
MS
🇨🇿Michael Sedlacek
ELO 1753
FormWWWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Sedlacek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+123
H2H37-31
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+123)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (37-31)