29 Jun · 14:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Skotnica
ELO 1564
FormLLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Vavrecka
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1570
FormLLLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Vavrecka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+6
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.