29 Jun · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇨🇿Mihail Trinta
ELO 1486
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Trinta
DB
🇨🇿David Barton
ELO 1476
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Trinta
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+10
H2H6-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.