29 Jun · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jiri Jira
ELO 1285
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jira
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1961
ELO 1229
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Jira
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+56
H2H14-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.