29 Jun · 22:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1527
FormWWWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pagac
MH
🇨🇿Marek Holub
ELO 1488
FormLWLLW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Holub🌟Holub covers set handicap as underdog 71% (14)
Fair odds · Pagac
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+39
H2H29-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.