29 Jun · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zeman
ELO 1688
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Mares
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1734
FormWWLLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Mares
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.03· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+46
H2H17-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.