29 Jun · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JK
🇨🇿Jiri Koch
ELO 1308
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Koch
JJ
🇨🇿Jiri Jira
ELO 1285
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Koch
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+23
H2H2-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.