29 Jun · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Lukas Martinak
ELO 1538
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cernin
TC
🇨🇿Tomas Cernin
ELO 1588
FormWWLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Cernin
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+50
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.