30 Jun · 03:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1561
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Bayer
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sopko
ELO 1527
FormLWWLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Bayer
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+34
H2H7-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.