30 Jun · 02:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Petr Sebera
ELO 1545
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sebera
SK
🇨🇿Sebastian Kasnik
ELO 1525
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sebera
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+20
H2H21-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.