30 Jun · 04:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇨🇿Vaclav Kosar
ELO 1479
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kosar
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1401
FormLWWWW
54%
46%
🌟Stefek goes over total as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Kosar
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.