30 Jun · 04:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sopko
ELO 1527
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sopko
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1526
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
🌟Tuma stays under total as underdog 85% (13)
Fair odds · Sopko
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 62% · 1.60· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+1
H2H17-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.