30 Jun · 18:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1498
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chalupa
MH
🇨🇿Marek Holub
ELO 1488
FormLWLLW
51%
49%
🌟Holub covers set handicap as underdog 71% (14)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.74· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+10
H2H31-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.