30 Jun · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇨🇿Jiri Koch
ELO 1304
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Koch
JJ
🇨🇿Jiri Jira
ELO 1275
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Koch
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+29
H2H3-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.