30 Jun · 14:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
CH
🇨🇿Cesta Havrda
ELO 1271
FormLWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Novotny
LN
🇨🇿Ladislav Novotny
ELO 1392
FormLLWWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Novotny
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+121
H2H13-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+121)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-12)