30 Jun · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JT
🇨🇿Josef Toth
ELO 1396
FormWLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Toth
PB
🇨🇿Petr Banot
ELO 1391
FormLWLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Toth
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+5
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.