30 Jun · 09:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KD
🇨🇿Kyryl Darin
ELO 1425
FormLLLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Zmuda
PZ
🇨🇿Petr Zmuda
ELO 1544
FormLLWWL
44%
56%
🌟Darin stays under total as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Zmuda
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+119
H2H1-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+119)
- ✓Better recent form (2-3)