30 Jun · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PF
🇨🇿Pavel Fojt
ELO 1564
FormWLLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Fojt
TD
🇨🇿Tomas Dousa
ELO 1484
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Fojt
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+80
H2H14-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.