30 Jun · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1734
FormWWLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Bilek
ZB
🇨🇿Zdenek Bilek
ELO 1758
FormWWLWW
49%
51%
🌟Mares goes over total as underdog 79% (14)
Fair odds · Bilek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+24
H2H33-50
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.