30 Jun · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DH
🇨🇿David Heczko
ELO 1531
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Heczko
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1507
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Heczko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+24
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.