1 Jul · 01:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇨🇿David Mutl
ELO 1416
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mutl
SM
🇨🇿Stanislav Mazanek
ELO 1401
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Mutl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+15
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.