30 Jun · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LK
🇨🇿Lukas Kern
ELO 1546
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kern
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1538
FormLWWWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Kern
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+8
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.