1 Jul · 02:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇨🇿David Mutl
ELO 1416
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mutl
JP
🇨🇿Jan Potensky
ELO 1388
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Mutl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 34% · 2.96· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+28
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.