1 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PV
🇨🇿Pavel Varecha
ELO 1491
FormWLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Varecha
AS
🇨🇿Antonin Schneeberger
ELO 1440
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Varecha
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+51
H2H6-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.