1 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1550
FormWLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Hofman
SK
🇨🇿Sebastian Kasnik
ELO 1519
FormWLWLW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Hofman
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+31
H2H10-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.