1 Jul · 16:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇨🇿Petr Sebera
ELO 1559
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Sebera
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1550
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Sebera
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H17-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.