2 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vondrak
ELO 1522
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Bayer
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1561
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Bayer
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H4-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.