2 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MG
🇨🇿Matej Grundel
ELO 1582
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Wollny
MW
🇨🇿Michal Wollny
ELO 1615
FormWWWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Wollny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H6-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.