2 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MP
🇨🇿Marcel Pikous
ELO 1633
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Pikous
JL
🇨🇿Jiri Louda
ELO 1588
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Pikous
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H60-83
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.