2 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1747
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Mares
LZ
🇨🇿Lukas Zeman
ELO 1677
FormWLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Mares
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+70
H2H19-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.