2 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1542
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Pagac
DS
🇨🇿David Szotek
ELO 1484
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Pagac
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+58
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.