2 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1964
ELO 1414
FormLWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stefek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stefek
ELO 1432
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🌟1964 stays under total as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Stefek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H34-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.