2 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ZP
🇨🇿Zbynek Pagac
ELO 1542
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pagac
MC
🇨🇿Michal Chalupa
ELO 1519
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pagac
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H46-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.