3 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇨🇿Josef Cabak
ELO 1564
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Cabak
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1530
FormLLWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Cabak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.