3 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vondrak
ELO 1519
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vondrak
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1500
51%
49%
Fair odds · Vondrak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.