4 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FJ
🇨🇿Frantisek Just
ELO 1569
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Just
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1543
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
🌟Tuma stays under total as underdog 85% (13)
Fair odds · Just
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 40% · 2.52· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H9-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.