4 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1543
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Simecek
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Simecek
ELO 1576
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
🌟Tuma stays under total as underdog 85% (13)
Fair odds · Simecek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.