4 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1346
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vaclavik
MV
🇨🇿Miroslav Vaclavik
ELO 1398
FormWLLWW
47%
53%
Fair odds · Vaclavik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 30% · 3.32· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.